Blunomy brief: September 2025
BESS bets: where does the battery opportunity lie?
Our high-level analysis of the attractiveness of various European markets (source: Blunomy analysis)
Over the summer we've been exploring some of the dynamics of European battery markets. Starting from what is driving the need, we worked through to a scan of where is looking good for project developers and investors.
Utility-scale battery capacity across Europe will nearly triple in the next five years, rising from around 39.6 gigawatts (GW) today to 113.1 GW by 2030, with the UK and Germany positioned at the heart of this expansion. Based on typical project costs, delivering the growth expected could require around 60-90€ billion in investment across Europe by 2030.
Based on our analysis, the three most promising markets for utility-scale battery storage in Europe are: Germany – Europe’s largest existing market, with strong price spreads UK – Favourable policies, long-term revenue contracts, and market maturity Italy – Backed by capacity auctions and strong regional pricing dynamics
There are also some strong opportunities in the next tier of countries:·
- France's strong renewables pipeline and expanding arbitrage opportunities make it interesting, and reforms to the capacity market and network tariffs should provide a welcome boost to returns.
- Ireland looks great on paper, even if it's a small market: limited interconnection and high VRE targets are driving strong system needs. Reforms to the previously lucrative ancillary services markets are worth watching, and policy support for longer-duration storage is gathering steam.
- Poland has one of Europe’s most dynamic BESS policy environments, and short-term prospects are strong, but saturation risks are already emerging.
Spain has seen some recent proposals aiming to put in place incentives, particularly after the blackouts earlier in the year, but the story remains one of great potential hampered by difficulty accessing the revenues streams that have driven profitability elsewhere. One category that could see nearer-term growth here is co-location of BESS with renewables, especially if plans to relax planning requirements pan out.
Efficiency: an effective investment for decarbonisation and cost reduction
Reflections from our co-founder, Vincent KIENTZ
The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Investment 2025 report confirms what we are seeing across markets: capital is shifting decisively toward the energy transition. Renewables lead the way, but what is striking is the next tier of priorities, with grids, storage and energy efficiency overtaking investment in natural gas. electrification and critically, if less headline-grabbing, energy efficiency are attracting growing investment. Together, these form the backbone of a more resilient energy system: efficiency lowers demand and unlocks value, while grids and storage provide the flexibility and stability to integrate more low-carbon supply.
Blunomy’s philosophy has always been to focus on what creates real value and cut through the green hype. That means working not just on the big questions around grids and storage, but on tackling the challenges of delivery in those categories, as exemplified by our SaaS products Vision and Orbit. Perhaps the ultimate example of a technology that delivers results but not headlines, though, is energy efficiency.
Here too, Blunomy has a strong track record, seeing efficiency as a practical tool for both decarbonisation and durable investor returns. We have helped clients tackle efficiency from different angles: whether supporting a global energy company to shape its R&D plan on energy efficiency and develop new client-facing services and helping a major bank scan the APAC landscape to identify the most promising efficiency financing opportunities by sector and geography.
For investors and decision-makers, it’s clear that the real opportunity lies beyond headline-grabbing announcements. Efficiency, grids and storage may not always command the spotlight, but together they are what make the transition deliverable. They are also what make it investable, creating durable value, strengthening energy security, and laying the foundations for a more resilient energy system.
Green pulse
Recent deals and market developments that have caught our eye.
🧱 CCUS | Northern Lights starts up: Norway’s Northern Lights project injected its first CO₂ into the offshore reservoir, marking commercial start-up of the project’s value chain (Brevik cement → ship → onshore tanks → 100 km pipeline → storage). Phase 2 investment is committed to lift capacity by ~3.5 Mt/yr.
- Signals CO₂ transport and storage is now a bankable service, including across borders.
- Early volumes are from cement, which is an important proof-point for hard-to-abate industry decarbonisation.
🔋 Battery storage | Europe’s biggest BESS goes live: Statera energised the 300 MW/600 MWh Thurrock battery in the UK, connected at National Grid’s Tilbury substation (a former coal site). Two-hour duration aims squarely at arbitrage and balancing services.
- The scale (300 MW) and duration (2 h) shows UK assets are moving from fast-frequency niches to true system-shaping capacity.
- Repowering coal grid nodes with batteries is becoming a template for speedy connection.
🟢 Biofuels | CMA CGM takes a stake to lock in renewable fuels: The shipping major has agreed to buy a minority stake in Vanguard Renewables, securing long-term access to US RNG/bio-LNG; Vanguard will dedicate up to four projects to CMA CGM’s demand.
- Long-term deals are emerging as the route to scale uptake of green fuels for maritime, offering security of supply for offtakers and boosting bankability for projects. Equity investment is the ultimate version of this trend.
- The move aligns with growing International Maritime Organisation pressure on GHG intensity of shipping.
- CMA CGM has previously also made big commitments this side of the Atlantic too, such as last year’s agreement with Suez for biomethane supply.
🌱 Industrial decarbonisation | Fortescue doubles its green investment: Australia’s Fortescue Metals Group will more than double its decarbonisation spend in FY 2025-26, from A$405 million to between A$900 million and A$1.2 billion
- This expanded investment reflects a focus on large-scale deployment of renewable energy and electrification in one of the world’s most emissions intensive sectors – but one that will remain crucial to building the infrastructure for Net Zero.
- Sends a powerful signal that heavy industry in Asia–Pacific sees deep decarbonisation as a business imperative, not a sideline.
⚡Flexibility | UK opens to residential flexibility: Ofgem, the UK energy regulator, has approved modification P483 to the balancing and settlement code, which might not sound that exciting but is actually a pretty big deal!
- P483 removes a major technical barrier to the participation of residential customers in flexibility markets.
Its approval could mark the unlocking of a major new pool of flexibility – if aggregators can scale and the deal for the customers looks right!
Blunomy news
- We're looking forward to talking all things decarbonisation at the Alliance ALLICE congress in September. Alongside other luminaries, Blunomy's Jérôme Durivault will be joining a panel of leaders from across government and industry to address this question, and discuss the infrastructure, investment, and innovation needed to answer it.
- The end of September and beginning of October is shaping up to be a busy time! We'll also be heading to Building Bridges in Geneva 30 Sep-2 Oct, and the Center for Financial Professionals (CeFPro)-organised Climate Risk and Stress Testing Europe 7-8 Oct. Keep your eyes on our page for updates on where and when to find us!